Summer 2008: Poker at the Crossroads
May 13, 2008
"It was chance created the poker beast; beancounters will kill it."
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Economics and Poker will clash this summer among the slightly tarnished gaming glitz of Las Vegas. Dispassionate observers of the poker world realize that this may be the watershed moment in the continuation or the demise of the "poker boom" worldwide.
Let's deal with the jingoism first: the United States is not the center of the universe. However, in some areas the U.S. does lead and one of those areas is 'poker as a recreational fad'. The central elements present in the U.S. that have fueled the poker boom are: the high proportion of casinos and card rooms available to the population; a large middle class with disposable income; high amounts of leisure time to pursue gaming as a hobby; relatively lenient social restrictions on gambling. Add to this the holy trinity of: the internet, television hole card cams and Chris Moneymaker; shake and stir and you have the poker boom of the last five years birthed in the United States.
The first nail in the poker coffin was indisputably the passage of the Unlawful Internet Gaming Enforcement Act in 2006. While online poker remains available to everyone who is really interested; any trend, craze, furor or fad like all good pyramids needs a constant influx of bodies to provide new fuel and new fodder. The UIGEA strangled that conduit of new poker players in the U.S. and hurt online sites globally that relied on U.S. players. While many internet sites continue to flourish, we all dream of what might have been had the wealth of new U.S. players not been shutoff.
But why will this summer be such a telling moment for poker? Well, the pieces are in place for the perfect storm of economic factors to lay bare the shaky fiscal underpinnings of the poker phenomenon. First and most obviously, the whole world will be watching the World Series, which begins here in Las Vegas in just two weeks. In fact, our first piece of evidence is the change in the WSOP schedule moving the main event final table to November. Clearly, this is an attempt to salvage the declining viewership on ESPN. Sure, sure there are other PR reasons being floated for the experiment but the television numbers don't lie.
Further evidence of the slowly failing interest in televised poker: the World Poker Tour is set to begin its 7th season with the Bellagio Cup in mid-July. At this point there is no television contract for the filming of this season's tournaments. The Game Show Network and WPT have not announced any agreement and speculation is that based on the viewer numbers for season six, the first on GSN, there may be no season seven contract for television. No television would mean few, if any, professionals would travel to the WPT events outside of Las Vegas. For more details on GSN, the WPT and High Stakes Poker check out the story on Pokerati and be sure to read the comments section for Oliver's insightful contribution.
Now there are many arguments to be made about bastardizing poker to the whims of television. Over the past several weeks we have all heard rants and raves about the benefits of television exposure. I feel no need to cover that ground again. If you would like to read two well reasoned expositions on both sides of the TV/Poker divide, I would direct you to Short-Stack Shamus for a moderated view on the whole issue and to my good friend and writing partner Amy Calistri for a sad lament on what television has done to poker.
OK, let's review. UIGEA - bad for poker. Television - good or bad for poker but ratings numbers are falling. The WSOP is about to begin, so why is this summer different from every other WSOP?
The U.S. is in a recession, well someone had to say it. Revenues at Las Vegas casinos was off a whopping 30%, first quarter 2008 compared to first quarter 2007. Fewer tourists and players are visiting Las Vegas. Those who do come are spending less on gaming, food, rooms, entertainment and shopping. Some of the smaller poker rooms in Las Vegas have closed, other rooms are limiting their hours and rumors of more closures are in the air. As the poker world turns its eyes to the World Series, everyone will be looking at the numbers.
Will the first $1,500 NLHE event on Saturday May 31st draw a monster field? Well, yes it will.
Will the main event numbers hold up? Maybe, perhaps a few more then last year or a few less.
The real numbers will come from the 53 events in between those two tournaments. How many players will make the commitment to a summer in Las Vegas this year? Sure the professionals will be here, that is not in question, this is what they do for a living. What we will discover is whether the second and third tier players still have the bankroll to play the Series in this economic climate. Will a bunch of poker buddies from Chicago still make the trip to try their skills against the best in the world or will they instead go to a local casino back in the Midwest and play some $100 tournaments? Remember when Chris Moneymaker won his bracelet in 2003 there were 36 events in the Series not the 55 there are today. Chris defeated 839 entrants in the main event not six or seven thousand players of the past several years.
So why will the summer (and one Tuesday night in November) of 2008 be so significant to poker? The World Series of Poker remains the premiere event in poker. Whether Harrah's/Caesars keeps the WSOP franchise or sells it off or moves it to a truly "World" Series by holding it in various international locations; a lot of those decisions will be based on what happens this summer. If the numbers are down, then the franchise is worth less. If the numbers are steady and the new final table format is a rating success, then we should expect more expansion and innovation from the WSOP brain trust.
What is likely to happen? I honestly don't know, I am in the reporting business not the prognosticating game but I will be here all summer bringing you news from the WSOP and from the entire Vegas poker scene. We are going to focus on background stories and player contact away from the tables. We will find out how the players think and feel about the current state of poker. Is the boom over? Who is playing more? Which players are planning for a life after poker? Is the death of poker in the wind or is the boom still booming?
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