World Series of Poker: Day Two Math
July 8, 2008
I had several interesting conversations in the last 24 hours about the math involving entrants on the Day 2's of the Series. Surprisingly there is a wide range of opinions about these numbers.
The basic formula we are talking about is this:
Day 1A survivors + Day 1B survivors = Day 2A combined field
Day 1C survivors + Day 1D survivors = Day 2B combined field
Which works out in actual numbers to this:
636 + 614 = 1,250
1026 + 1352 = 2,378
This all comes about because the starting fields for Days 1A & 1B were much smaller than for Days 1C & 1D.
The question is: Are players at any disadvantage starting their Day 2 with a field of 1,250 or 2,378 and if so, why?
What surprised me is that some of the same "mathematical" reasoning goes into arguments that either of the two fields gives some hidden and unfair advantage to the players in that flight. Here are a few of the "facts" I have heard:
-with more players (2B) there are more chips in play and clearly more chances of accumulating them;
-fewer players (2A) means big stacks are more likely to be seated together, making the potential for super stacks more possible;
-there will be more big stacks in the bigger field (2B);
-there will be more short stacks to go after in the bigger field (2B).
Well let's toss out some actual facts here. There are almost exactly the same number of players over 100K in both fields by percentage of remaining players. Yes, there are more in the bigger field but 63 out of 2,378 is not an advantage over 34 out of 1,250 in the smaller field. That's 2.6% and 2.7% over 100,000 in each field.
Average chip stack is also nearly the same in both fields. There are more short stacks in the big field but again not out of line when you look at percentage of the field. So the question is: Are you more likely to run into a big stack if you are also big or a table of short stacks to feast on? Again the percentages are nearly identical.
The only real factor of concern would be if either Day 2 had any chance of approaching the "in the money" magic number of 666 in the total field. And while Day 2A (1,250 runners) may well reach 666, there is no way both fields can reach a combined 666; not even close. In all likelihood, we will reach Day 3 with 1700+ players remaining.
So the Day Two math = an interesting thought problem with a mundane answer: There is no advantage to either field.
Comments
Got something to say?